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How to Survive Your Survivor Pool [Week 1 Picks]

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Survivor pools in the NFL have increased significantly over the past decade and choosing which team for Week 1 of the NFL season can be taxing task. The Philadelphia Eagles are the heavy favorite going into Week 1 because of their matchup against the weak Jaguars.

Description of Survivor Graphic (courtesy of Chris Liss):
"First column is the team you’d consider, sorted by percentage taken, i.e., what percentage of pools are using them.

Second column is the opponent. (Home teams are in CAPS)

Third column is, according to the tens of thousands of leagues on OfficeFootballPools.com (more likely to be money leagues than ESPN or Yahoo), what percentage of the field is on each team.

Fourth is the Vegas money line. Typically teams are listed as: +550/-650. That means for every $100 you bet on the underdog, you’d win $550 if they win. Or for every $650 you bet on the favorite, you win $100 if they win.

As you can see Vegas is taking a big “middle” - they’re paying out only $550 if the dog wins, but collecting $650 from all who bet favorites. We can estimate from this that the true line (or true market value) is +/-600, half way between the two.

That’s what I’ve got for column 4 - the average between the two lines to get the real line without Vegas’ cut.

Fifth is translating that real line into a percentage. If the Eagles are 562.5, that means they’re 562.5:100 or, put differently, 562.5 out of 662.5. If you divide 562.5 by 662.5, you get 84.91, i.e., the percent chance Vegas gives them to win."

Who is your pick for Week 1 of the survivor pools? Leave your answers in the comments section below.
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TYT Sports is proud to team up with Chris and Heather from Rotowire.com to bring you the fantasy football news and inside info that will take you to the top of your league. The panel featuring Ben Mankiewicz, Chris Liss and Heather Ankeny will also bring you advice on Survivor Pools and standard Pick'em Pools as well.

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Follow Chris on TWITTER: @chris_liss
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