The surprising data on AI and unemployment rates | Joseph Politano

“I'm here to argue that AI is not going to cause a rise in unemployment. I think it's actually increased employment in the United States, not decreased it.”

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When ChatGPT was first rolled out, there was a widespread fear that unemployment was going to rise very quickly. Well, it's been several years since ChatGPT was released, and the unemployment rate in the United States has stayed the same, says Joseph Politano, economic analyst and data journalist.

In fact, if you look at employment in the U.S., it's near some of the highest levels on record -- and they've only increased over the last few years since the start of the pandemic. The economy has gone through tectonic economic shifts before. Think: the rise of the smartphone, or the rise of the internet, or the rise of the phone in the first place. Or even things as simple as elevator buttons that put elevator operators out of work. These created new jobs that more than replaced the jobs lost by technological change.

In fact, if you look at data from the U.S. Census Bureau, on one of the most comprehensive surveys of businesses in America, the vast majority of businesses said that AI has not affected their employment levels at all. And if you look at the subset of businesses that said AI affected their employment levels, the majority said that it increased the number of people they had on staff, not decreased. That's not to say that all industries and all occupations are going to be completely unaffected. There's going to be a shift away from the kind of work that AI is able to do exceptionally well, and towards the kind of work that humans can specialize in. Here’s what to expect from the job market with the rise of generative AI.

0:00: AI and unemployment
0:47: ChatGPT’s impact
1:17: Tectonic economic shifts
3:02: US Job churn

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About Joseph Politano:

Joseph Politano is a Financial Management Analyst at the Bureau of Labor Statistics working to support the Labor Market Information and Occupational Health and Safety surveys that BLS conducts. He writes independently about economics, business, and public policy for a better world at apricitas.substack.com.